Estimasi Penjualan Oli Gardan dengan Perbandingan Berbagai Metode Deret Waktu untuk Mengatasi Permintaan Fluktuatif
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55606/isaintek.v6i02.138Keywords:
Estimating, Forecastin, Prediction, Time Series Method AnalysisAbstract
Sales of scooter gear oil-syn120mlrep spare parts with part serial number 08234M99K8LZ0 at PT. ADM experienced problems with the number of orders needed to suppliers. One of the reasons is because of uncertain sales. The author offers a solution to overcome the problems faced by the inventory section by estimating sales using forecasting methods based on past data. The purpose of estimating sales is so that the company can anticipate surges in demand for spare parts from customers. The method used is Time Series Analysis assisted by POM QM software for windows. This forecasting method consists of Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Exponential Smoothing with Trend. In addition to calculating forecasting, forecasting tests were also carried out by calculating (Mean Absolute Deviation-MAD) of 30.175, mean squared error (Mean Square Error-MSE) of 1434.542, and average absolute percent error (Mean Absolute Present Error-MAPE). 49.443%,. The results of forecasting test calculations are obtained for forecasting recommended to companies using Exponential Smoothing with Trend with a total demand for the next period of 85 units. The company can make decisions for the next month's orders to suppliers based on estimated sales using the forecasting method that has been chosen earlier, so that fluctuations in demand from customers can be overcome.
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